Islamist extremist violence in Africa's Sahel region is set to reach historic highs after a series of sweeping offensives by groups linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State, according to new figures compiled by the conflict monitor Acled. The statistics, published as the US marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks launched by al-Qaida, underline the continued expansion of the veteran organisation in parts of Africa, in stark contrast with its relative weakness elsewhere in the world. Compiled by Acled, which stands for Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, the figures focus on the centre of Islamic militancy in three countries, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which together form a huge and hotly contested zone at the heart of the strategic Sahel region. Incidents of violence with jihadist groups present in the three countries have soared from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have already been logged, and if current trends continue an annual total of well over 3,000 events appears likely. ## Deadliest Region on Earth for Terrorism Though total deaths from terrorism globally have fallen to their lowest level since 2008, those in the Sahel have risen sharply. "Terrorism has become more geographically concentrated: the Sahel continued to record some of the world's highest terrorism death tolls, with the UN recording more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2025," the 2026 report of the Global Peace Index noted earlier this year. In April, a joint offensive in Mali launched by the al-Qaida-linked group Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front targeted strategic towns, government forces and their Russian auxiliaries with ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids, inflicting significant casualties. Mali's defence minister died in a suicide attack on his residence in the garrison town of Kati, nine miles north-west of the capital Bamako, and the head of military intelligence was killed. Other attacks hit Mali's international airport, while rebels seized control of the strategic city of Kidal after soldiers fled and a force of Russian mercenaries surrendered, reversing a key symbolic victory won by the junta three years ago. Since then, JNIM has continued to expand areas under its control in Mali, killing more soldiers and Russian mercenaries in recent weeks and broadening operations in neighbouring countries. ## Groups Very Local, Analysts Warn In Burkina Faso, JNIM has claimed more than 130 attacks in 2026, striking ever closer to the capital Ouagadougou. In Niger, the group claimed at least 17 attacks but remained significantly less active than its rival Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent United Nations report based on intelligence supplied by member states. Experts said JNIM had distanced itself from al-Qaida's historic objectives of striking the US and its allies. "In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel," said Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin. The other main group in sub-Saharan Africa with links to al-Qaida is al-Shabaab, which has dominated much of Somalia's rural areas for many years. "In east Africa, al-Shabaab remains one of the continent's deadliest groups, with Acled recording more than 10,000 reported deaths in al-Shabaab-related violence over the past 18 months," said Peter Bofin, Acled's senior analyst for south-east Africa. "Despite some degradation of its extortion in Mogadishu, its revenue streams stretch across the country, and the region." ## Al-Qaida Core Weakens as Africa Becomes Main Arena Militant groups linked loosely to Islamic State remain active in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad and Nigeria, where they were targeted by US airstrikes last year. The continuing expansion in sub-Saharan Africa has been welcomed in al-Qaida's propaganda, but experts point out the continent barely featured in the group's strategic planning until recent years. "Twenty-five years ago it was all about Afghanistan and then Iraq ... Africa wasn't really of interest then. Now it's the main area of operations," Laessing said. The recent UN report described al-Qaida's senior leadership as "marginalised" and said the group's capability and intent to conduct external operations remained "unclear." No successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, killed by the US in Kabul in 2022, has been formally declared; the de facto leader is believed to be 66-year-old Saif al-Adel, who is thought to have been in Iran since 2002 and has yet to make any public statement. Even al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, described by the UN as "the vanguard of the global al-Qaida movement," has declined sharply: its activity fell by approximately 70%, from 63 events in the first seven months of 2025 to 19 during the same period in 2026, according to Acled. The trajectory leaves the Sahel, not the Middle East, as the centre of gravity of the movement that launched the 9/11 attacks a quarter of a century ago.